THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
With The Presidential
Election Just Around The Corner, What May Be In Store For Us?
Update -- October 30,
2008 -- No Reason To Change Our Minds?
Read the update below...........
The chart at the right shows the
price of McCain shares on
Intrade.com through today. Prices reflect national vote
share (explanation below). Click on the chart for more
details.
Update -- October 31, 2008 -- 08:00 AM
E-Day -
4! We first posted this page over a month ago and we have since
seen nothing to changed our mind as to the outcome of this election.
We hope we are wrong, but the facts don't support it. See the
chart above (read more below on what the chart means) and go to our
favorite political web site
www.RealClearPolitics.com to read all about it. Miracles can
happen, but if McCain - Palin pull this one out it would be beyond any
miracles we've ever seen. There is, however, one small bright
spot. It seems the Congressional situation may not be "totally"
one-sided as it looked a month ago. You can see that
here.
One
more thing, we posted
this information about a conference call we held recently on
this subject which you may want to review.
Update -- October 4, 2008 -- 12:00 PM
Remember, you heard it here first! See the update below on
September 28 and again on September
30. Today, October
4th, the RCP polls show Obama with 264 electoral votes. It
takes 270 to win the election. The
Intrade quote today has Obama at 68 and McCain at 32.
The
meaning of Intrade prices roughly reflects the national voter share as discussed at length below. You can click on the chart above for the most
current quote.
The election is 31 days from today! Is it shaping up to be
a landslide for Obama and the Democrats. If so, this will not be
a good
thing for our industry.
Update -- September 30, 2008 -- 8:00 AM
Senator McCain will need to become a magician in order to win the
election at this point. Read the post
from the 28th below to see why we say this. Click on the chart
above to see what those who place money on a presidential outcome
have to say. As of this date it is well over 60/40 for Obama!
If this trend continues the election is headed for a landslide.
This outcome is also backed by polling from one of the best
political web sites on the internet
as seen
here.
September 28, 2008
After
all the work Borrow Smart has done at the grass-roots level here in
Alabama we
believe, for the moment, the focus is at the national level. We
further believe that the outcome of the Presidential election may have a
significant impact on the future of our business. So, let's take a
look at what we know about the candidates stand on our industry and how
the election may play out over the next several weeks.
First,
go here for a view of Obama’s platform to see how it affects our
industry. It is not a pretty picture. If McCain should win,
it is not as clear what it may mean. But, it is perfectly clear
it could be no worse than an Obama win!
The pundits
pontificate about the outcome of the Presidential election and it all
sounds quite confusing! Well, read on for more information to add to the
madness.
Before we get to
the “more information” part of the discussion let's discuss a concept called
"trading
sites." These sites allow people to buy and sell “shares and/or futures” on
elections as though they were trading corn, wheat or stocks. The theory behind this concept is that markets are a better predictor of
outcome than polling. This is true because people may tell a pollster
just about anything, but when they place their money on the side they
believe in you get a much better outcome than polling. In fact, this has proven
to be the case over the many years these sites have been around. Over
time the trading sites have proven to be incredibly accurate.
So, what does
this all mean for the presidential election? It means the trading sites
are up and running at full speed and predicting like crazy. There are
many of these sites, but the best known for this election is probably
the site found at one of the most popular political sites on the
internet:
www.realclearpolitics.com. The trading site is called
www.intrade.com.
You can click here to see
a side-by-side comparison we
pulled from the Intrade site of the price for each Presidential candidate. The total of the two is about $1.00 so the
price for each actually represents the vote share.
These particular charts ended on Sunday, September 28th. This is
after Friday’s presidential debate two days earlier. On
this day Obama was trading at slightly over 56 and
McCain at 42. If you are a McCain fan this is bad. Very bad.
This means is if the election were held on the 28th, among other things our new President
would be called President Obama!
Is there
more information in the charts? Yes, there is. Here are a few
additional thoughts:
1.
The election is over a month away. That’s a lifetime in
politics.
2.
Notice the longer-term trend. Obama peaked in July and his price
has declined since. Over the same period McCain has increased.
Increased, that is, until mid-September. But, the long-term trend (180
days) is still in place. Those who trade stocks & futures have a famous
saying, “the trend is your friend.”
3.
The long-term trend for McCain has not yet been broken, but it is
very close to breaking to the downside -- NOW.
4.
If the short-term trend (last few weeks) continues to the
downside for McCain, it is most likely all over for him. He just will
not have enough time to recover from any steeper loss.
5.
In the world of technical and chart analysis, prices never go in
a straight line. They go up and down to develop a trend. So, this is a
critical point. It is quite possible the price will break to the upside
right here. It is possible and would not be surprising. Is it likely?
That is the big question. We do not have long to wait. The prices
should give us an answer in the next three to seven days. If the
price for McCain falls below 40 here and remains below 40 for more than
a day or so that is about it for McCain.
Hope and pray and check back here often to see where the daily
prices or check in at
www.realclearpolitics.com
often. We will post an update if any significant event takes
place.
